A recently released climate change study out of UCLA predicts that snowfall in the mountains surrounding the Los Angeles basin will be reduced by 30-40% by 2050. Without some sort of mitigating emissions policies that decline could increase to as much as two thirds by the end of the century. For an already water-stressed area that continues to drag its feet on conservation and other
water issues (i.e., ridiculously unbalanced subsidies) while it also continues to grow, this is a pretty dismal forecast.
The study focused on the L.A. area by changing the normal low-resolution, large-scale modeling used for global assessments to a more narrowly prescribed model using 1981-2000 data from the local mountains and their communities.
From project leader Alex Hall,
| "Climate change has become inevitable, and we're going to lose a substantial amount of snow by midcentury," said Hall, a professor in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. "But our choices matter. By the end of the century, there will be stark differences in how much snowfall remains, depending on whether we begin to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions." UCLA climate study predicts dramatic loss in local snowfall |
The implications of these predictions are not hard to conjure. Reduced snowfall means reduced water availability, not just because of less melt but because more precipitation will fall as rain, will run off and be lost (not to mention the inevitable flooding that will result). There will undoubtedly be diminished recreational opportunities, and change in ecosystems, some of which could result in species being lost.
Although the federal government cannot escape the continual obstruction caused by ignorant ideologues and denialists (yes, I'm looking at you, James Inhofe) cities have proven to be more agile, partly because of political homogeneity, but also because of enlightened self-interest (e.g., Seattle, New York). City managers and public officials recognize that they're going to be the ones brought to task when conditions (think Hurricane Sandy) that have been consistently predicted have not been taken into account as a part of long-range plans.
| "This science is clear and compelling: Los Angeles must begin today to prepare for climate change," said Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. "We invested in this study and created the AdaptLA framework to craft innovative solutions and preserve our quality of life for the next generation of Angelenos." - UCLA climate study predicts dramatic loss in local snowfall |
Considering the long-term trends for water in the southwest, this may actually be a losing battle, but it's one that has to be fought. Engaging the problem means reducing hardship and preserving environmental and biological diversity. Ignoring it is a thumbed nose at our children and their descendants.